Here, countries transitioned from high fertility/mortality to low fertility/mortality due to modernization and development such as female empowerment, access to health care, and more.
Today: most countries are past this transition and in many countries fertility has fallen below replacement levels (which is about two children / woman). This applies to about 5.8 billion people and include countries such as Brazil, India, China, and more - these countries are already experiencing population decline. Fertility is still very high in sub-Saharan Africa & this will drive global population growth for many more decades.
Now, the main factors in population dynamics are a) migration and b) longevity. This means that in high-income countries immigration is and will be the main driver of population growth & that is ultimately what is behind the rise of MAGA & other types of nationalism / populism that we see.
Plus the so-called second demographic transition that is playing out in wealthy countries: fewer children = lower fertility due to rising individualism, new models of partnerships, and gender equality.
More details @ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed1652
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