Our Demographic Future

In the 20 century: the demographic transition theory.

Here, countries transitioned from high fertility/mortality to low fertility/mortality due to modernization and development such as female empowerment, access to health care, and more.

Today: most countries are past this transition and in many countries fertility has fallen below replacement levels (which is about two children / woman). This applies to about 5.8 billion people and include countries such as Brazil, India, China, and more - these countries are already experiencing population decline. Fertility is still very high in sub-Saharan Africa & this will drive global population growth for many more decades.

Now, the main factors in population dynamics are a) migration and b) longevity. This means that in high-income countries immigration is and will be the main driver of population growth & that is ultimately what is behind the rise of MAGA & other types of nationalism / populism that we see.

Plus the so-called second demographic transition that is playing out in wealthy countries: fewer children = lower fertility due to rising individualism, new models of partnerships, and gender equality.

More details @ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed1652

Debbie Downer or Realist?

 

Landsat Surface Temperature

This seems cool, but I have no idea what to do with it: Landsat Surface Temperature Web Mapping Application and Data. Joe Kerski has some ideas here.

The Periodic Table Of Data Viz

Pretty cool, but uesless: https://www.visual-literacy.org/periodic_table/periodic_table.html

We Are Fluffed!

Here's some reading for Bill Gates:

• The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink
• State of the Climate in 2024

"We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet's vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer future threats but are here now. This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction, unsustainable economic systems, and misinformation. Almost every corner of the biosphere is reeling from intensifying heat, storms, floods, droughts, or fires. The window to prevent the worst outcomes is rapidly closing."

"Climate change mitigation strategies are available, cost effective, and urgently needed. From forest protection and renewables to plant-rich diets, we can still limit warming if we act boldly and quickly. Social tipping points can drive rapid change. Even small, sustained nonviolent movements can shift public norms and policy, highlighting a vital path forward amid political gridlock and ecological crisis. There is a need for systems change that links individual technical approaches with broader societal transformation, governance, policies, and social movements."

The Future Of AI

Cool piece in Nature: The Future of AI

Nature spoke to six people at the forefront of AI development — people who are driving the technology’s development and adoption, and those who are preparing society to adapt to its rapid rise. In this video series, they describe their greatest ambitions for the technology, their expectations of where and how it will be adopted in the coming years, and their concerns for the future.

The usual caveats apply: selection bias, who signs their paychecks, etc.

Bills Gate's Climate Memo

So, everybody is going crazy over Bill Gate's recent 'memo': A warmer world will hurt this group more than any other

Read the details yourself, but Gates basically presents the classic mitigation vs adaptation strawman argument that goes something like this: "For most people, the greatest problems are poverty and disease, not climate change and therefore we should focus on those, not climate change."

Ok, Bill: let's talk:

1. That's just a false dicotomy - we can & should focus on both.
2. Climate change is a threat and harm amplifier.
3. The greatest impacts of climate change today & in the future will happen in the poorest countries.
4. A 2.5 - 3 C warmer world will be radiacally different from our world today.

Mike Mann has a nice World View piece in Nature: Bill Gates’s climate comments are a dangerous distraction. Mike starts with the classic Stephen Schneider statement: when it comes to climate change, the "end of the world" and "good for you" are the "two lowest-probability outcomes". Read the rest!

Predictably, climate deniers jumped on this & claimed that Bill now supports them in rejecting the climate change hoax: “I (WE) just won the war on the climate change hoax.Bill Gates has finally admitted that he was completely WRONG on the issue. It took courage to do so, and for that we are all grateful. MAGA!!!”

The questions is: why...why spend your time & resources on this 'memo'?

The Romans Google Maps!

This is really cool: a high-resolution digital map allows people to plan their routes along the ancient roads of the Roman Empire.

• Summary in Nature
• De Soto, P., Pažout, A.,Brughmans, T. et al. (2025) Itiner-e: a high-resolution dataset of roads of the Roman Empire. Nature Scientific Data. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-06140-z
• https://itiner-e.org/

Mega Screenshots

Excellent hack to 'trick' your browser & create super high-resolution screenshots: How to Get Giant Screenshots from a Browser

ToolUniverse

ToolUniverse is a unified ecosystem that transforms any large language model (LLM)—open or closed—into a powerful AI scientist. By standardizing how LLMs identify and call tools, it integrates over 600 scientific resources, including machine learning models, datasets, APIs, and analysis packages.

With its AI-Tool Interaction Protocol, ToolUniverse provides a common interface for seamless communication between LLMs and tools, ensuring compatibility across platforms such as GPT, Claude, Gemini, and open-source models.

More over here: ToolUniverse Documentation

3D model of Sutro Tower in San Francisco

This is super-slick: https://vincentwoo.com/3d/sutro_tower/

Five Map Projections